Okay, let's take a look at what we know. And I don't want to hear any crap about Moriarty's fox pin or fairytale symbolism or whatever. Just the facts.
Okay, starting with their post-trial meeting:
Sherlock makes the tea and plays the violin. When Moriarty comes in, he comments, "Johannes Sebastian would be appalled," and takes his seat. There follows a brief discussion about Bach in his last days. (M: "Couldn't cope with an unfinished melody." S "And neither can you.") Then some chatting over the key code, which is pretty much irrelevant since we know it was never real. Then Moriarty's I.O.U. speech: "I owe you a fall Sherlock." ; "Falling's just like flying except there's a more permanent destination."
So, they both know that Sherlock's going to die. There's a two-month breach for the two of them to plan their strategies.
Moriarty's Strategy: Take advantage of Sherlock's obvious contempt for the press and really drag his name through the mud with tailor made, too-clever cases. Get inside their heads, including Sherlock's. Plant the doubt seeds. And when all of it is done, get Sherlock to kill himself.
Sherlock's Strategy: Don't die. (Note: I'm summarizing a lot of complicated, Sherlock-y thoughts for our puny little fangirl brains.)
Okay, simple enough.
John and Mycroft have talk about the press. Mycroft admits to giving Moriarty information in exchange for the code, implying he knew of the code's existence. BUT, we know the code's a fake. Moriarty admitted himself that it was just music, saying, "Thank you Johannes Sebastian Bach!" (I think he had a tiny inspiration from Sherlock's violin playing in the tea scene.) Some of the information in the articles was valid, because John recognized it, but how much? We haven't seen the article, so we don't know, but clearly there is more to Mycroft than meets the eye, and we know from the original canon that he's supposed to be even better at observing and so on than Sherlock is himself. Maybe Mycroft was feeding Moriarty half-truths. Maybe some of the information was gathered by Moriarty during his time at the Yard as "Jim from IT" and Molly's boyfriend. But that's not quite as important as the fall itself.
Cut to St. Bart's.
Sherlock goes to St. Bart's after separating himself from John. He talks to Molly and asks her for help. Presumably, they plan something. John arrives, the decide to use the code to erase Brook and bring back Moriarty. John gets the call about Mrs. Hudson being shot.
John Watson: She's dying, Sherlock. Let's go.
Now, we know Sherlock is supposed to have done something out of character (see article here) and I think this is one of the clues. "You once half killed a man because he laid a finger on her!" We all love that bit in Scandal when Sherlock throws the American out of the window because he punched Mrs. Hudson. So why hasn't anybody pointed this out? I think Sherlock knew that John would go to Mrs. Hudson's aid, even if he had just run away handcuffed to London's Most Wanted. I think the phone call was a set up. I think Sherlock wanted John to be out of harm's way. And I think that this must mean, while he anticipated his friends being targeted, I don't think he anticipated Moriarty's actual plan of three separate snipers. (We'll get to that in a moment.)
Sherlock, having previously sent a text to Moriarty to meet him up on St. Bart's ("P.S. I've got something of yours that you might want back."), now receives a text from Moriarty: "I'm waiting..." Sherlock goes up to him. And, because they're them, they talk through the whole thing.
First, the case at hand. It's almost as if Moriarty is a professor delivering a test to his favorite student, pacing around Sherlock and so on. This circling Sherlock, I believe, blows that whole "phone recording" theory. Sherlock wasn't hiding anything in his hands, and we know that because he tapped out the code for Moriarty with his fingers. We also get another lesson in German: Reichenbach = Richard Brook. (This series really makes me want to learn German...) Sherlock threatens to use the code to "destroy Richard Brook and bring back Moriarty." At this point, Moriarty explodes-- in fact, he almost seems to be crying as he says, "Too easy... There is no code!" At which point he mentions that it's only a song.
And la-dee-da, more dialogue, Sherlock nearly throws Moriarty off the roof (S: "You're insane." M: "You're just getting that now?"), and then Moriarty reveals the Incentive:
Sherlock Holmes: "John?"
Jim Moriarty: "Everybody."
Sherlock Holmes: "Mrs. Hudson?"
Jim Moriarty: "Everybody."
Sherlock Holmes: "Lestrade?"
Jim Moriarty: "Everybody. Three bullets. Three gunman. Three victims."
So, we can safely assume that Sherlock sent John away to check on Mrs. Hudson in the hope that John wouldn't end up in the same situation as he was at the end of Series 1, strapped to explosives, at the whims of an insane criminal mastermind. In fact, we can even assume that he anticipated that Moriarty would target these three specific people in some way, given the fact that it's been done before. But I think he wasn't expecting all three of them to have their own personal assassin. His shock was too real.
Sherlock gets up on the ledge for the first time and peers down. We see the bus, and the people, and Sherlock begins to laugh. But before he laughs, he looks. Then he jumps lightly down as Moriarty asks, "What have I missed?" and there's another spiel about angels and boring and ordinary and then Moriarty kills himself.
Now, why doesn't Sherlock jump the first time? Because he has a plan. He looks down, and there's a bus. John isn't here yet. It's not the right time. He has to stall a bit longer. Speculating that the gunmen can be called off with a word, he chats a bit longer with Moriarty:
Okay, why do we need any of this? Why? This whole dialogue, it's... beautiful, it's dramatic, but necessary? Not particularly. It feels sort of meaningless, as if Sherlock's just bantering. He's restating things that have already been established in previous encounters with Moriarty. And I seriously doubt that Sherlock could have forced Moriarty to call off the gunmen. He's brilliant, but Moriarty's stubborn. He would have done something crazy, the way he always does. Last time Sherlock was in a threatening situation with Moriarty, he was only saved because of a well-timed phone call.
Then there are a couple of frames where Sherlock perches himself on the edge of the roof and begins messing about with his face. What is he doing? Not putting on make up, as some have suggested. Sherlock isn't the type for fake blood, and his features are unchanged when we see the phone call a bit later. However, Sherlock's hand passes over his mouth. You can just see him putting his hand over his mouth, although the view is a bit obscured by his shoulder. (Rewatch if you're skeptical, and pay close attention.)
Then comes the phone call. Twice, he sends John back behind that little brick building. He can see Sherlock, but not the place where Sherlock is going to hit the ground. This tells us two things: 1) Sherlock wants John to think that he is dead. 2) The garbage truck must be important. It covered the spot where Sherlock hits the ground just fine, but Sherlock wanted John well out of the way. There's something fishy about the truck.
Sherlock then goes on to tell John that he is a fake, that he wants him to tell everyone that he's a fake, the newspapers were right, and Moriarty isn't real. So terribly sad, blah-blah.
This is an excerpt from the Radio Times article, where Moffat gives us a hint:
"I’ve been online and looked at all the theories," Moffat told us, "and there’s one clue that everyone’s missed. It’s something that Sherlock did that was very out of character, but which nobody has picked up on."
Yeah, Sherlock called instead of texting, but come on. Is that really all you saw? What about the fact that Sherlock Holmes started bloody crying? Think that's a bit important, do you? No?
Remember Scandal?
What about this bit?
Sherlock Holmes: Sentiment is a chemical defect found in the losing side.
And Hound?
Sherlock is Spock. "This is your 36th attempt to illicit an emotional response from me," that's Sherlock Holmes. He considers them tedious. They are no benefit to him, so he tries his best to disregard them, in himself and others. He often needs John's guidance to know when he is being too insensitive, or when he might offend someone unintentionally. He's not a big fan of emotions.
SO WHY IS HE CRYING?
I think that is TREMENDOUSLY out of character, and frankly I'm shocked that nobody has brought it up. We can literally see the tears streaming down his face, dripping onto his scarf, and it's beautiful acting on the part of Cumberbatch. Why don't we stop looking at his gorgeous, symmetrical cheekbones, and start asking what's ON them?
After that, he jumps. I don't believe any of that crap about post-mortems being dropped by Molly, or magical trampolines, or whatever. I do think that Sherlock landing in the truck makes sense. But although I do believe he fell into the truck, I think the height was sufficient for him to be bloodied up, even with the padding, and then tossed onto the pavement. Why? We see Sherlock falling forward quite clearly, here:
But he lands on the pavement on his side, here:
Ladies and gents, either the corpse of Sherlock Holmes wants to be drawn like one of your French girls, or he landed in the truck and was pushed out. Also, while we're looking at the above picture, notice the lack of blood. I don't see any red on his face at all, even though we are at somewhat of a distance. So, how did his face get like this:
And where did all of this come from? This huge puddle:
There wasn't much time, but there was probably enough for Sherlock to arrange for some blood. And there's also the fact that the height he jumped from was sufficient for him to get rather bashed up, garbage padding or now. But the truck's padding would have allowed him to sustain (perhaps) more repairable injuries than smacking the concrete from six stories up.
Still, there's another thing. He looks pretty dead. Why?
There are drugs and chemicals that exist that can induce a death-like state. (Check out this article from HowStuffWorks for an example.) I bet you anything he either took it when he "wiped his mouth" or injected it when he landed on the truck, depending how long it needs to kick in. It's more likely he took it on top of St. Bart's. It would explain why he was so emotional (could be a side-effect) and it would explain his laughter and not jumping the first time. He was waiting for the drug to take effect. He was laughing because his friends were safe-- he would be medically dead now, quite soon, regardless of whether Moriarty called off the shooters or not.
Also, I think it's pretty obvious I don't believe in the Great Body Switch triggered by the "Slow Down" safety cone. Honestly, when you think about it, it's a somewhat ridiculous theory. Why would they switch bodies in broad daylight? Don't you think John would have noticed, even with the four human shields around the gurney? Yeah, John was concussed, but he isn't stupid, and neither are the other witnesses who watched John being wheeled in, and who I seriously doubt were all planted. (Though I'll buy the cyclist theories. Too coincidental to be a coincidence.) Several people have gone to Bart's and seen the actual cone, which means it wasn't a helpful hint from Mofftiss. Sorry, but I don't buy it. We can't romanticize this.
A Somewhat Inconclusive Conclusion:
Mycroft knows the code Moriarty has is fake. He had Moriarty in captivity pre-trial and Crime of the Century, so if he knew the code, he could have anticipated the robberies. He didn't. He may or may not have informed Sherlock of this fact, but he is somehow in on the plan to convince John that Sherlock is dead. He is feeding John facts to help him jump to conclusions when the time comes. Mycroft always, always, knows much more than we think he does.
Sherlock was playing Bach on his violin when Moriarty comes to tea. Moriarty tapped out a tune of Bach's instead of a real code to throw Sherlock off. It really is fantastically subtle.
Months pass, and the two work on their strategies. The kidnapping takes place. People become suspicious of Sherlock. The song and dance of the episode, the arrest, etc.
Sherlock goes to Molly for help the night before his jump. Presumably, she gets hold of the chemicals or drug needed to make Sherlock appear dead. With the help of Mycroft, they arrange for the truck driver and the cyclist. He will jump off of St. Bart's because then there won't be any need to call an ambulance; he can simply be wheeled into the closest hospital, Bart's itself, and straight into the morgue, where Molly will be waiting.
On top of St. Bart's, Sherlock chats with Moriarty, leading him to believe that he's beaten Sherlock, so that he can uncover for certain the safety of his friends, specifically John. He stands on the ledge, asking for privacy, and peeks at the ground. People are coming off of a bus, perhaps Molly is even going up to her post from that bus, or some other passenger gives a signal-- not yet. Sherlock takes the drug Molly has given him. He turns around and stalls some more with Moriarty. Why? Well, making good use of his time, obviously. He's trying to get ensure that Moriarty dies (roughly) with him. When Moriarty finally shoots himself, Sherlock checks again. He jumps into the garbage truck, then lands on the pavement. John gets hit by the cyclist. His head injury, combined with his shock at Sherlock's apparent suicide, is enough to make him believe that Sherlock is dead, thus causing the shooters to leave. Sherlock is wheeled safely up to Molly, and that's the end of it.
There are holes in this, I'm sure. Feel free to point them out.
Love always, Sarah xx
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